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 Ku xayeysiiso Ganacsigaaga Buurweyn.net waxa hubaal ah in aad ku qanci doontid
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"The 'Puntland State of Somalia' Comes into Play"
Thu.Aug.02,2007.
Puntland, which is self-described as the "Puntland State of Somalia," has been considered by analysts and observers to be one of the more politically stable regions in that fractured country. During the past two months, however, Puntland has experienced a bout of unaccustomed political instability that culminated on July 26 in a street demonstration in its capital Garowe that ended in protestors throwing stones at its president, Mohamud "Adde" Muse, who had attempted to mollify the crowd, which was demanding an end to hyper-inflation. Puntland has begun to come into play in Somalia's tortured web of conflicts.
With a population of approximately 2.5 million, Puntland occupies the northeastern portion of the area compromising the post-colonial Somali republic, which in 1960 joined the former Italian Somaliland and British Somaliland into a single state. Puntland is socially dominated by the Darod clan family, with the most power residing in the Majerteen sub-clan of the Darod. Its major industries are livestock and fisheries, and exploration for oil and natural gas deposits is projected, as PINR detailed in its July 23 report. [See: "China Invests in Somalia Despite Instability"]
Puntland came into being in August 1998, when Majerteen warlord Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed -- now president of Somalia's internationally recognized Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) -- engineered the autonomy of the Nugal, Karkar, Bari and part of the Mudug regions. In 2002, Puntland forces occupied Darod-dominated parts of the Sool, Sanaag and Togdheere regions, which are claimed by Somaliland -- the territory of the former British Somaliland, which declared its independence from the rest of Somalia in 1991 and has failed to gain international recognition.
During its nine years of autonomy, Puntland has developed a political system characterized by a strong presidency and a weak legislature, which is not organized into parties. Until he assumed the T.F.G.'s presidency in 2004, Yusuf was Puntland's strongman, serving as its president from 1998 until 2001, and then from 2002 through 2004, after he militarily defeated his rival Jama Ali Jama, who had resisted Yusuf's efforts to extend his original term. Muse was elected to Puntland's presidency by its parliament in 2005 and has attempted to follow the presidential model set by Yusuf.
Overhanging and forming the context of Puntland's politics is its equivocal political and legal status. Unlike Somaliland, Puntland's autonomy is officially provisional, with reintegration with the southern regions of the former Italian Somaliland to be achieved after a successful process of national reconciliation. Standing between independence and integration, Puntland's relations to the other parts of the original Somali republic are complex and uncertain. It is in an incipient state of war with Somaliland over the disputed territories, and it has a vital interest in keeping the gains that it has reaped from autonomy in any wider political settlement with the T.F.G., to which it is closely tied through Yusuf.
For the first time since it declared its autonomy, Puntland is now faced with the possibility of a day of reckoning, as a process of reconciliation gets underway in the south and the T.F.G. mounts attempts to assert its authority over economic resources and security, and Somaliland asserts its territorial claims more aggressively.
As is the case throughout the Horn of Africa, the model of Puntland's politics is the political machine, in which the leader retains support by paying off allies, trying to avoid marginalizing any groups sufficiently to drive them into effective opposition, and attempting to suppress opposition if it arises. That formula is viable when there is enough largesse to go around and when the machine is well disciplined, neither of which is true for Puntland, where Muse -- under pressure from the outside -- confronts increasing internal opposition sparked by economic and security failures. The events of the past two months reveal that Puntland's apparent stability concealed underlying tensions that have now surfaced.
An Accumulation of Divisive Issues
At the heart of Puntland's present instability is a failure of governance that spills over into a host of interrelated issues involving the economy, control of resources, security, governmental functioning and the de jure and de facto status of the sub-state.
The most pressing problem confronted by Muse's administration is hyper-inflation, which triggered the unprecedented July 26 protest demonstration in Garowe that was organized by civil society organizations and had the support of the business community. Since June, the value of the Somali shilling has fallen from 16,000 per US dollar to 21,000, causing prices of staples to rise by a third. The inflation has been blamed on the massive counterfeiting of shillings by an operation in Puntland's major port and commercial center Bossasso, with administration opponents claiming that it is supported by the government, which is strapped for funds, and Muse claiming that it is the work of local and southern Somali businessmen seeking to "undermine the economy."
On June 14, Muse attempted to freeze the shilling-dollar exchange rate. His effort failed, and on July 3, traders in Bossasso staged a strike and protest march, charging that the government was using the counterfeit money to pay its employees, whose wages were months in arrears. On July 25, as demonstrators gathered in Garowe, the government announced that its security forces had confiscated the printing presses used to produce the counterfeit shillings, but that did not head off the protests. Muse responded by claiming that much of the problem was caused by a rise in the prices of imported goods.
Even if Muse's administration is not complicit in the counterfeiting, its inability to control hyper-inflation shows the weakness of the government and has exposed it to emboldened grassroots opposition that is unlikely to subside as long as the situation persists.
Coupled with the possibility of Puntland's reintegration into Somalia proper, which is still remote, the financial problems of the government have led to efforts by Muse to exert control over the sub-state's economic resources, spurring further conflict. On May 27, Muse finalized a deal with the Arabian al-Jabberi enterprise, giving that firm exclusive rights for 15 years to export Puntland livestock, triggering opposition from local businessmen and dissent in parliament, which would supposedly have to ratify the deal. Disputes within Muse's administration have also surfaced over the export of natural stones to the United Arab Emirates that have similarly spilled over into parliament.
During the spring, the Puntland administration attempted to address the longstanding problem of illegal fishing in Puntland's coastal waters by arresting and detaining the crews of foreign fishing vessels. The actions led to negotiations with Yemen that culminated in an agreement over fishing rights, coastal security and human trafficking that met with immediate opposition from the T.F.G., which asserted that the Puntland administration had no authority to make inter-state agreements. On July 6, Puntland's minister of fisheries, Said Mohamed Rage, told parliament that Garowe has the authority to sign deals with "foreign partners" and that "Puntland owns its coastal resources" and will continue to do so until there is a "referendum on federalism." Rage's comment marked an assertion of sovereignty that throws into doubt Puntland's commitment to reintegration with southern Somalia within the terms of a reconciliation process.
Puntland nonetheless retains close relations with the T.F.G. and is represented at the ongoing National Reconciliation Conference in Somalia's official capital Mogadishu. Most importantly, it has dispatched thousands of troops to the south to protect the T.F.G., causing opposition in parliament and opening up security gaps. On August 1, the ninth anniversary of Puntland's autonomy, Muse announced that he had reached an agreement with the T.F.G. that Puntland's security forces would be integrated into the T.F.G.'s military, and that the T.F.G. would pay for equipping them.
The result of major deployments in the south has been an apparent loss of Garowe's grip over the territories that it annexed in 2002. On July 28, local media reported that an independent autonomous authority had been set up in the Sanaag region that would eventually place itself under the T.F.G.'s authority. On July 29, a delegation from Somaliland visited the major town of Lascanood in the Sool region to discuss development initiatives with ex-Puntland officials. The delegation vowed that Somaliland would "regularly conduct governmental affairs" in Sool now that the region has been abandoned by Puntland forces, which have either been redeployed or have deserted due to nonpayment of wages.
The accumulation of divisive issues has weakened Muse's administration and his hold on his machine, generating conflict that has played out in unprecedented parliamentary assertiveness and direct action in the streets. The interrelated yet cross-cutting pressures on Muse have forced him into a defensive posture, rendering Puntland's political future uncertain.
Muse Retreats Under Political Fire
By the end of May, opposition to Muse's policies, his authoritarian style of governing and -- as Dr. Abdeweli M. Ali precisely put it -- "performance failure" had mounted in Puntland's political class. Two months earlier, Somaliland forces had made a probe into the Sanaag region and had reportedly withdrawn only after Darod troops among the invaders defected and joined the Puntland militias. The incident showed Puntland's military vulnerability, despite its outcome. Resistance among Puntland's legislators to Muse's treatment of parliament had also been growing and was about to break out into open conflict.
At the end of May, Muse was in Bossasso trying to deal with rising crime, disaffected businessmen and piracy, and had delayed his return to Garowe, leaving Vice President Hassan Dahir Afqura to fend off questions from legislators on the salary arrears of civil servants and security forces.
On May 27, Afqura met with Puntland's parliamentary speaker, Ahmed Ali Hashi, and told him that Muse would not come to parliament to answer questions because only a "complete parliament" could legally compel his presence. As the meeting between Afqura and Hashi was going on, Muse was finalizing the livestock export deal with al-Jabberi, leading to further opposition from legislators under the pressure of local businessmen.
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